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Back-to-school deals get shoppers in stores
Friday, September 03, 2010

Consumers went back-to-school shopping in August -- the kids did need a few things, after all -- but they insisted on getting the best deals for the money, according to monthly sales reports from many of the nation's biggest retailers.

U.S. chain store sales rose 3.2 percent in established stores over the same month last year, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers, a trade group in New York. That figure includes 31 retail chains but not the biggest retailer, Wal-Mart, which stopped giving monthly results more than a year ago.

"August sales held up relatively well because shoppers' intention to curb their spending plans was outweighed by their back-to-school needs, especially when they scrimped on meeting those needs a year ago," said Frank Badillo, senior economist at Columbus, Ohio-based consulting firm Kantar Retail.

A year ago, the recession had the nation firmly in its grip and the back-to-school season found parents saying no to new clothes and backpacks. Continued weakness in the jobs and housing markets as well as in consumer confidence caused retailers to be unsure if shoppers would return this year.

Still, in August, department store chain J.C. Penney reported a 2.3 percent gain in sales at stores open at least a year, a figure also known as same-store sales, and said back-to-school categories did well. Sales of backpacks showed especially strong gains as did sneakers.

Kohl's reported a 4.5 percent same-store sales increase but, in a recorded sales commentary, the retailer said the average unit retail price was down as was the number of things that customers bought per transaction. The company sees that as an indication consumers are still being cautious.

In many cases, retailers reported their best weeks came as the month of August progressed, which may reflect interest in tax-free holidays offered by several states but also shows consumers postponing purchases until the last possible moment.

The teen retail category found Pittsburgh's own American Eagle Outfitters reporting a 1 percent gain in same-store sales, but taking a conservative view of how much shopping customers will do after the back-to-school peak passes.

The South Side retailer expects third quarter same-store sales to be flat or down from this point last year.

Meanwhile, Abercrombie & Fitch same-store sales rose 6 percent, driven by what analysts at Jefferies & Co. described as "better product and more attainable and affordable pricing." Aeropostale, which has been a value player all along, reported a 1 percent drop that may reflect in part the promotions and price shifts at Abercrombie and American Eagle.

Dealing was common across the retail sector.

"Heavy promotions during the back-to-school season, which started earlier and were deeper than we have seen in years, drove solid traffic and sales," said Ken Perkins, at consulting firm Retail Metrics Inc. in Swampscott, Mass.

Investors will be watching to see how much those discounts cut into third-quarter profits. They also will study the latest shopping patterns and sales results for indications on what to expect in the important holiday shopping season.

"At the moment, all indications are that holiday 2010 will be quite promotional, which will be married to tougher year-over-year sales and gross margin comparisons," wrote analyst Brian Sozzi, with Wall Street Strategies Inc. From an investment standpoint, he noted, that's not the ideal scenario.

Shoppers, however, may think that sounds about right. As Mr. Sozzi said earlier in his report, "No discounts, the consumer is willing to sit the dance out."

Teresa F. Lindeman: tlindeman@post-gazette.com; 412-263-2018.
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First published on September 3, 2010 at 12:00 am