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Americans are shopping for only essentials, hunting for bargains
Thursday, October 09, 2008

The U.S. consumer no longer seems willing to shop in the face of economic uncertainty. As the nation spent recent weeks watching implosions on Wall Street followed by a stock market gone haywire, shoppers last month stuck firmly to newfound patterns of buying only the goods they really needed.

"We saw retail sales fall off the cliff after Labor Day weekend," said C. Britt Beemer, chairman of America's Research Group, a consumer behavior research firm in Charleston, S.C., that surveys thousands of shoppers weekly.

At this point, he said, things don't look good for the holiday sales season.

The year hadn't been going that well anyway for most retailers but more than a few received unpleasant surprises along with the economic turmoil last month and were forced to revise their expectations downward. A number of chains released results yesterday to avoid conflict with the Jewish holiday Yom Kippur.

An industry group issued a preliminary sales tally showing chain sales rose 1.7 percent in September, led by value retailers. "September was a very tough retail environment with only a few bright spots," said Michael P. Niemira, chief economist for the International Council of Shopping Centers. A final tally will be released today.

Midpriced department store chain J.C. Penney said the economic climate took a toll on consumer sentiment and helped triggered a 12.4 percent drop in sales at established stores for the five weeks ended Oct. 4. The company said customer traffic in malls, which had been down all year, hit the lowest level yet.

Penney's pulled back hard on its third-quarter earnings expectations from 70 to 75 cents per share down to 50 to 60 cents per share. Meanwhile, rival Kohl's, where same-store sales fell 5.5 percent, steered investors toward the lower end of its earnings guidance.

Other chains that noted things hadn't gone quite as planned included South Side-based teen retailer American Eagle Outfitters and upscale department store chain Nordstrom, scheduled to open its first Pittsburgh-area location later this month at Ross Park Mall.

Sales at established American Eagle stores fell 6 percent, and the company trimmed 2 cents off the third-quarter earnings guidance of 31 to 36 cents per share. A year ago during the quarter, the retailer posted earnings per share of 45 cents.

Nordstrom reported same-store sales fell 9.6 percent in September. Another upscale competitor, Saks, posted a 10.9 percent drop with management predicting the "extremely challenging economic environment" would continue for several months.

Those looking for the consumers who weren't in the malls might have found them at Wal-Mart, where sales in stores open at least a year rose 2 percent. Officials noted the strongest results came in necessities such as grocery and health items.

Warehouse club Costco, with a 7 percent same-sale gain, noted its profit margins took a hit because consumers were buying food and health goods but cutting back on things such as furniture and housewares.

Richard Galanti, Costco's chief financial officer, wasn't exactly complaining. "Our core business is just fine," he told analysts on a conference call yesterday even as he noted the difficulties of figuring out what the price of gas will do next.

In light of the tightening credit situation that's been a factor in Wall Street upheaval, more than one retailer moved to assure investors things were OK going into the key holiday season.

"We expect our excess borrowing capacity will continue to increase through the fall season," said Keith Plowman, chief financial officer of York-based department store chain Bon-Ton Stores Inc. in a prepared statement. Penney's offered assurances it had cash and credit to fund holiday inventory needs, and Costco said some bumpiness in a few investments wasn't a big concern.

On the consumer side, Target reported having to write off more debt in its credit card segment.

Even consumers who can still pay their bills seemed to be spending less. "I hate to be a prophet of doom, but the fact is this is what we're going to see for Christmas," said Mr. Beemer.

This may be one of those holiday seasons, he said, in which the parents don't give each other anything so they can still get something for the children.

Teresa F. Lindeman can be reached at tlindeman@post-gazette.com or at 412-263-2018.
First published on October 9, 2008 at 12:00 am