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Another case in point about John Russell's decisions sometimes looking like head-scratchers, then somehow, pretty much invariably panning out ...
Tuesday night here under the big Arch, Russell brings out Marino Salas in the bottom of the ninth with a tied score.
Welcome to the bigs, kid.
But wait. After Salas leads off with a walk to Aaron Miles and Miles gets bunted over, Russell orders an intentional walk of Skip Schumaker.
Seems fairly routine, except that it now brought Albert Pujols into the equation. Brendan Ryan was on deck, meaning that Salas' very best scenario now -- double play notwithstanding -- was to strike out Ryan and still have to face Pujols with runners at first and second.
Well, Salas did the first part and froze Ryan for a strikeout. But now came Pujols. After a meeting at the mound, where Ronny Paulino cautioned Salas against giving Pujols much of anything, there was a five-pitch walk.
I asked Russell why not simply put Pujols aboard there.
"I really didn't want to load the bases for the kid and put even more pressure on him," he replied. "I wanted to give him a chance."
So, with bases loaded, Ryan Ludwick proceeded to take that pressure right off by swinging at the first pitch for a popup that ended the inning.
How about that?
And never mind that I asked Russell before the game if he was having second thoughts about batting Nate McLouth behind Freddy Sanchez, given McLouth's mini-slump. This just hours before Sanchez singled to lead off the fourth, and McLouth hit a two-run home run ...
Q: Dejan, Jack Wilson has missed most of the season. Matt Morris lasts one month. Freddy Sanchez has a bad shoulder. Tom Gorzelanny is inconsistent. The errors are out of control. Adam LaRoche had his usual start.
And yet, the team is right at .500 at almost the quarter point of the season.
Am I crazy to think this ball club might actually have the potential to capture 82 wins?
David Bruni of Cranberry
KOVACEVIC: All depends on the trades, David. You seem to be operating on the assumption that, if the team is hovering with a pseudo-losing record by July, it will not get dismantled. I would not agree.
That said, your general point certainly stands. The team has under-performed, it seems, in more areas than it has over-performed (Nate McLouth, Xavier Nady, Ryan Doumit), and one wonders what it might look like if anything could be sustained.
Q: I don't understand the desire to trade some of the Pirates' better players for prospects. Wouldn't the Pirates also receive very good prospects for Jason Bay, Xavier Nady or John Grabow if the trades were made after the season? I don't see any of these guys falling completely apart in the second half of the year.
Dave Kappeler of Oshkosh, Wis.
KOVACEVIC: As sure as the stock market has its own outside indicators of how it will do, so do the Pirates' current on-field fortunes or misfortunes dictate how readers feel about making trades.
When the team is losing, or when a player is doing terribly, they should get traded.
When the team is succeeding, they should stay.
I have written here for years that the model franchises, particularly those with payrolls in the lower tiers, are those that sell at a player's peak value. That is why the Bay deal to Cleveland was killed in December, that is why no one offered anything significant for Nady, and that is why even reliable lefties such as Grabow and Damaso Marte were barely getting nibbles.
How might all fare of them do now?
To answer your direct question, Dave, no, it is not likely that any of the four will be as valuable at season's end as they would be in mid-season.
One obvious reason is that teams will be more eager to address needs in June or July because of injuries or because of a belief that they can contend. In fact, that is when some GMs can think irrationally and give up too much for such a player, an ideal situation if you are on the other end.
The other reason is that all four of these players will be that much closer to free agency, which all can declare after 2009. The more of a player's time a team has under control, the more valuable he is.
Some of us saw all this coming, I might add.
Q: Dejan, Even with the Pirates playing a lot better, I still hear talk of dismantling the team and trading off some or most of our most productive players, such as Jack Wilson, Bay and Nady.
I know we have some you talent in the minors, but what would this do to your young starting pitchers, who seem to be developing this year, to see the team trade their offense to get younger prospects who might have no major league experience?
By the way, I am a first-time writer and love the Q&A.
Jeff Jones of Brackenridge
KOVACEVIC: It is good to have you aboard, Jeff.
A couple of responses, in addition to the stuff above ...
The next time I hear Wilson's name raised as a trade candidate will be the first this calendar year. If anything, I get the very strong sense that the Pirates realize now more than ever how little they can afford to be without him.
The impact of a fire sale on the pitchers probably would be significant, at least from the offensive support side. Right now, they are backed by the best offensive outfield in the majors, and a couple other bats -- notably that of Adam LaRoche -- are waking up, too. But, playing devil's advocate here, the Pirates would, in theory, replace Bay and Nady with Andrew McCutchen and Steve Pearce, which only a couple of months ago probably seemed a highly attractive option. The rest of the daily lineup, aside from maybe third base, does not figure to change much.
The catch is with the bullpen, which you did not mention. Lose Grabow and Marte -- and one can feel pretty confident that Marte will go at the deadline regardless, given his $6 million option for 2009 -- and the starting staff loses the very good relief support it has now.
Left unspoken, of course, is that, if Bay, Nady or whoever gets traded, the greatest likelihood for returns are with pitching, probably very good pitching if the Pirates evaluate properly. If those guys are at Class AA, it might take a little longer to get here, but not much. Look at Jair Jurrjens. The Pirates could have had him for Wilson, and he would have come right from Class AA. As we speak, he is a highly promising member of Atlanta's rotation.
Q: Dejan, you've written several times in the past week that the Pirates have "the best offensive outfield in the majors." Can you quantify that statement?
I've tried looking, but can't find anything that would make the Stats Geek proud.
Errin Carner of Central Valley, N.Y.
KOVACEVIC: Sure, Errin. It started with some math I did on my own for the "Of note" portion of the daily Today box with this piece from Washington. Not exactly high-profile stuff, which might explain why you could not recall seeing it quantified.
I chose OPS -- on-base plus slugging percentage -- because it takes pretty much every significant offensive category and wraps it up into one number, production and power. The Pirates and Cardinals have bobbed back and forth with this number in the 10 days since then, but they and the Texas Rangers are, in some order or other, 1-2-3, depending on the day.
Specifically, heading into the game last night, the Pirates' outfield -- meaning anyone who takes at at-bat while assigned to an outfield position -- ranks first in the majors with 22 home runs, a .524 slugging percentage and, yes, a .914 OPS. Their 79 RBIs rank second to the Rangers, and their .390 on-base percentage ranks second to the Cardinals.
I can just sense the Geek beaming with pride back home.
Thing No. 94 that makes Pittsburgh great, by Jeff Mandler of Chicago: Seat 5A.
I live in Chicago now, so getting back home often requires a flight back to the Burgh. On each of these flights, I do my best to sit in seat 5A. The seat never disappoints.
As the plane approaches the airport from the west for landing, I look out the window to my left and see the Pittsburgh skyline. It looks a bit different than from the top of Mount Washington, but it is another priceless view of a great city. I don't sit too far back because the wing can block the view. As the plane continues through the descent, the rolling hills of Western Pennsylvania become more apparent. It is always good to land in Pittsburgh.
Go Bucs.
KOVACEVIC: It never gets old, Jeff. Even as someone who flies in and out of the city 25-30 times a year, I, too, take the window seat, always on the left side of the plane, so your note struck me as much as any I have received for these Pittsburgh entries.
To elaborate on the Mount Washington view you describe, it gives a much clearer portrait of how deep the valley is from the hill to Downtown, with the skyscrapers basically peaking above the sweeping panorama of tight, curving roads and rooftops in the foreground.
Favorite sight on daytime flights is the roof of our Arena, which, unfortunately in terms of design, is on the verge of being replaced by something infinitely less inspired. The huge steel dome is a tremendous landmark from overhead, a defining, distinctive imprint of our city that cannot be matched anyway.
Favorite sight at night -- and this might surprise some -- is the roof of the convention center, with its blue lights sweeping downward through the middle. (Check those blue lights from the intersection of Penn and 10th Street one of these nights, by the way. They spell out the words to a book you can sit there and read for hours. No kidding.)
Anyway, the part I like best is hearing the reactions of others on the plane, particularly those witnessing it for the first time.
Enjoy seeing your club at Wrigley this weekend, Jeff.
There will be no Q&A tomorrow because of the afternoon game and the travel getting home. Paul Meyer will cover the series in Chicago, and I will be back next week when the Brewers come to PNC.
The chat will be Monday, and the Q&A will be back the next day.
Until then ...