
As Javier Bardem's crazy character Chigurh says in the Coen brothers' movie, while flipping a coin, "You need to call it."
Like lots of other critics and odds makers, I'm calling it for "No Country for Old Men." It should take home the top prize Sunday at the 80th Academy Awards in Hollywood.
True, "Juno" is the movie everyone loves and quotes and recommends to friends, but is it Oscar-worthy? Can it go down in the Hollywood history books alongside "The Departed," "Gladiator," "Schindler's List," "The Godfather" and the like?
That was the same question asked last year of "Little Miss Sunshine," and we know how that turned out. It won for supporting actor Alan Arkin and writer Michael Arndt but not for picture.
Given what has gone before at other awards shows, the die seems to be cast. Still, it's possible director Julian Schnabel will sneak ahead of Joel and Ethan Coen, or enough voters will watch their DVDs of "La Vie en Rose" to award the gold for best actress to its spectacular star, Marion Cotillard.
So, with pride but no money on the line, here goes:
"No Country for Old Men"
The Oscar race, like that for president of the United States, is all about timing, momentum, staying power and popularity. "No Country" has all of those things.
"Atonement" peaked too early, failed to get a director nomination and won the Golden Globe for dramatic film but lost its televised platform. It's become the movie to dis as the traditional choice, and who wants to admit they vote like a geezer? That leaves "Juno" (see above), the very respectable legal thriller "Michael Clayton," which is experiencing a late surge, and "There Will Be Blood," which will be honored in the leading actor category.
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Daniel Day-Lewis is the Helen Mirren of the 2007 race. He's deserving, eloquent, phenomenal and a sure thing. At a time when Heath Ledger's death weighed heavily on the heart and mind, Day-Lewis took time out of his interviews and acceptance speeches to put words to our grief. He seems to feel everything truly, madly, deeply.
Julie Christie, "Away From Her"
Unless Ellen Page of "Juno" gives birth to one of the biggest surprises of the night, this award should go to Christie as the Alzheimer's-stricken Fiona in "Away From Her" or Marion Cotillard as Edith Piaf in "La Vie en Rose."
Cotillard deserves to win, but Christie seems to be the darling, having first won for 1965's "Darling" when she edged out Julie Andrews, Samantha Eggar, Elizabeth Hartman and Simone Signoret. If you're in an Oscar pool where you can fill out multiple ballots, check Cotillard on one, just in case.
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Hal Holbrook is the sentimental choice for "Into the Wild," but considering that he didn't win at the Screen Actors Guild ceremony, he doesn't seem to have much of a chance. Bardem is at the top of his game, he knows how to deliver an acceptance speech, and he is wicked good as evil incarnate.
Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"
I'm stumped on this one, but I am going for Dee. She has an Oscar moment when she slaps her gangster son, played by Denzel Washington, and tries to talk some sense into him. It would be a lifetime achievement award for the 83-year-old actress and widow of actor Ossie Davis.
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
If they're going to win, they deserve to be listed separately, rather than as a single entity. They won the Directors Guild of America honor and only six times in the 60-year DGA history has its winner not captured the Oscar.
"Ratatouille"
In June, director-writer Brad Bird told the Post-Gazette: "If you start thinking about movies logically and saying, 'My goal is to make something that everyone all over the world will like three years from now,' I mean, you'll just cower in the corner and you'll never come out of your room because it's too impossible." But his charmingly animated story about a rat who aspires to be a chef is liked (or loved) all over the world.
"Juno"
There might be some gnashing of teeth in Hollywood because this was Diablo Cody's first screenplay and she has become the toast of the town while others toil in the fields for years. Cody worked as a stripper, blogged about it, turned that into a memoir and wrote "Juno" in Minnesota, sometimes while sitting at the Starbucks in Target. The main complaint about "Juno" is that her heroine is too darn smart and sassy for a teen, although that didn't bother the Writers Guild of America, which honored her original screenplay.
"No Country for Old Men"
WGA gave its adapted screenplay award to the Coens. When you're hot you're hot.
"The Counterfeiters"
Based on the book "The Devil's Workshop" by Adolf Burger, this Austrian film dramatizes a counterfeiting operation set up at the Sachsenhausen concentration camp during World War II. Prisoners who had worked as printers, bankers and craftsmen were forced into service and given the choice of cooperating with the enemy so they might survive or sabotaging the operation and facing certain death.
"Taxi to the Dark Side"
Filmmaker Alex Gibney, who made "Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room," uses the suspicious death of an Afghani taxi driver at Bagram air base in 2002 to examine torture and what he calls the corruption of the human spirit. I'd be just as happy if Michael Moore won for "Sicko," and I'd love to hear that acceptance speech.
"Sari's Mother"
On a farm in Iraq, a mother struggles to care for her 10-year-old son, Sari, who is dying of AIDS. She not only is battling the disease but a chaotic health-care system.
"Atonement"
The re-creation of life in the years before, during and decades after World War II was done with meticulous care. If "Atonement" is old-fashioned filmmaking, as detractors like to say, it's old-fashioned filmmaking at its best.
"No Country for Old Men"
Roger Deakins has a 40 percent chance of winning this statuette because he's nominated for "No Country" and "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford." If he loses, he will be 0 for 7.
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
Conventional wisdom says pick the expected best picture winner, which would be "No Country," edited by the Coens under the name of Roderick Jaynes, but this was all about assembling the pieces of the globe-hopping action puzzle.
"Atonement"
Every fashion story about Keira Knightley's gorgeous emerald gown was a reminder to vote for this movie. That floor-sweeping dress, actually a composite of three shades of green, was named best film costume of all time in a recent poll, and it was only one of the many outfits created for this period piece.
"La Vie en Rose"
These makeup artists not only had to transform Marion Cotillard, who played a fetching waitress in "A Good Year" opposite Russell Crowe, into Edith Piaf, but they had to age and debilitate her.
"Atonement"
The sound of the typewriter keys hammering the paper echoes throughout composer Dario Marianelli's score, which adds layers of drama, romance, tension and tragedy to the story.
"Once"
This unconventional Irish love story is all about the music, which makes "Falling Slowly" the natural choice, particularly if the three "Enchanted" songs cancel each other out. This is the cutting-edge category that turned Three 6 Mafia into Oscar winners, so why not Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova?
"Peter & the Wolf"
You could make an argument for any of these five nominees, which tap into whimsy, nostalgia, humor and, in this case, a timeless piece of Prokofiev music married to striking animation.
"The Mozart of Pickpockets"
If voters follow their tears, expect "At Night," about a trio of gravely ill women, to win. I'm betting on "The Mozart of Pickpockets," a 31-minute French gem about unlucky thieves whose fortunes change when they take in a deaf homeless boy. Its final image is a winner.
"Transformers"
The Visual Effects Society honored it in the "Visual Effects in a Visual Effects Driven Motion Picture" category. Good enough for me.
"Transformers"
It was all about the sound and shape-shifting robots.
"Transformers"
Kevin O'Connell has been nominated 20 times for his sound work, from 1983's "Terms of Endearment" to last year's "Apocalypto" and now, "Transformers." He passed overdue a decade ago.